Predicting blooming dates

Discussion in 'Ornamental Cherries' started by eteinindia, Mar 30, 2021.

  1. eteinindia

    eteinindia Active Member VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    ★Predicting blooming dates

    Wendy is interested in Cherry forecast map of Japan very much.

    So I wrote there were two very easy ways to know blooming time of Somei-yoshinos in short time. She wanted me to write here to start discussion.

    In Japan many weather companies make Cherry Forecasts using formulas with past weather data, weight of buds and weather forecast of long and short time.

    But there are two ways of easy short time forecasts in Tokyo and south.

    1. Somei-yoshinos start blooming when the sum total of the highest temperature of the days from February 1st exceed 600 degrees.

    2. Somei-yoshinos start blooming when the sum total of the average temperature of the days from February 1st exceed 400 degrees.

    * The temperature of the blooming day must exceed 12 degrees in Tokyo and 10 degrees in north.

    *There must be some rains before blooming. (In Tokyo winter is very dry. We had only a few rainy days inTokyo this year.)

    *The blooming date in Tokyo means the day when the sample tree has 5 flowers open.


    I had heard those rules but I hadn"t tried them myself.

    So before I wrote here I checked they worked or not.

    I checked blooming dates and copy-and-pasted resent weather data from Meteorological Agency to excel sheet and calculated.
    I made a sheet of excel to show the result but I couldn't past here.
    Anyway, the theory of 600 degrees of highest temperature works very well for Somei-yoshinos in Tokyo. The theory of 400 degrees of average temperature works for most of times but sometimes doesn’t work at all.

    But when I check Sapporo in Hokkaido, the north island, both theories didn’t work. The weather of Sapporo more similar to the one in Vancouver.
    I think there are some days the highest temperature are minus.
    The warm temperatures helped the buds growing but when the coldness came, I don’t think they go back to winter condition again. I think they are rather taking a rest for growing. So I omitted the highest temperature below 0, the theory works a little better. (I didn’t calculate sum of average temperature because it looked not working.) If I make the sum total to 550 degrees, it really looks good. I checked 6 years result but they stayed ±2 days.

    When I think about predicting blooming date in Vancouver, I think cherries in Vancouver must have some rules about temperatures.
    Akebono is a little different from Somei-yoshino, but it must have its own rule.
    Now you have blooming data of past 13 years and I think you can get the detail data of past daily temperature.
    Then you might be able to find the rule of blooming date.
     
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  2. Acerholic

    Acerholic Paragon of Plants Forums Moderator VCBF Cherry Scout Maple Society

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    You are so lucky Mariko, over here in England you have to search yourself, very hit and miss. But recording it in your phone diary these days is a great help. I now get the reminder each year after entering it when I see it and where. Technology is just perfect for that.
    Enjoyed your posting, very interesting indeed.
     
  3. wcutler

    wcutler Esteemed Contributor Forums Moderator VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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  4. wcutler

    wcutler Esteemed Contributor Forums Moderator VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    That is so surprising. We get so many trees that open up a few flowers, or a small branch, much earlier than the rest of the tree gets going. I photograph the first flowers at Burrard Station, but it feels like a joke to me because they're just a few over-excited little flowers, totally out of tempo with what is going on with the rest of the blossoms. And there is no correlation between the date of those first flowers and the peak blooming date, "peak" meaning when the trees are providing a good photo-op (my current definition is "visible from two blocks away").

    Still, I'm keen to see if I can figure out something that correlates the temperatures with the blooming dates. It's hard here, since the temperatures differ around the city, and 10 degrees seems to be the point at which blooming progresses. We don't have reports for every year in every neighbourhood, or probably even not in any one neighbourhood, and with March temperatures hovering around 10 degrees, some neighborhoods will be just under, so slower to bloom than others. I can't even seem to nail down a blooming order among the different cultivars.
     
  5. eteinindia

    eteinindia Active Member VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    Wendy, the sample tree is not the first blooming tree. I have seen some flowers of other trees in other area before the sample tree.
    Some cherries at Burrard Station are affected by warm air from Subway. The flowers you posted were something like creasy bloom.
    Also the Sample tree at Yasukuni Shrine bloomed 3 days earlier than Cherries at Chidori-ga-fuchi Moat. They are only apart about 500 meters. But the one at Yaskuni is surrounded by walls and low buildings which prevent cold wind but no sunshine and the ones on Chidori-ga-fuchi Moat locate near the water. I visit suburban area for cherry viewing after midtown cherries are finished.
    In Vancouver blooming time is differ every area. But you must know the rough order of blooming time. So if you can choose the cherry which represent the beginning of the blooming order.
    To choose the sample tree is a little difficult. It must be a tree which locates near the Meteorological Agency or the place correct weather details are kept.
    Anyway I used excel sheets to calculate. But I couldn't paste them here. So I'm sending you them.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 31, 2021
  6. wcutler

    wcutler Esteemed Contributor Forums Moderator VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    I had to convert this from .xlsx to Excel 97 .xls to upload it. I am also uploading the pdf file I created (using Microsoft Print to PDF) from the original file.
    Edited by wcutler: The system has just been modified to allow the original .xlsx file, so I have replaced the converted one I uploaded with Mariko's original.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2021
  7. wcutler

    wcutler Esteemed Contributor Forums Moderator VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    Oh my gosh, did I say I was thinking of doing something similar to this?
    You must love us, Mariko.
     
  8. Michael F

    Michael F Paragon of Plants Forums Moderator 10 Years

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    More like Nova Scotia or Newfoundland than Vancouver: winters very snowy (Sapporo holds an annual snow/ice sculpture fair!), and considerably colder than Vancouver. Yes, many days when the highest temperatures are minus, which isn't true of Vancouver!
     
  9. eteinindia

    eteinindia Active Member VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    Thank you, Wendy, for uploading the excel files here.
    Also I 'm sorry I translated every Japanese to English using replacement of excel, but that only worked on the sheet I was using.
    But what I used for calculation were only the temperatures.
    Also I can't find the past data details of Vancouver climate. I think I could when I was in Vancouver. I totally forgot where I should check.
    Wendy, if you can find the past data, please share with me.
     
  10. eteinindia

    eteinindia Active Member VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    Yes, that's true. There isn't any place like Vancouver in Japan. If I choose which is more likely to Vancouver, Tokyo or Sapporo, I think Sapporo is more likely to Vancouver. when you calculate the blooming date, you have to think about how you treat the days the temperature stay below 0.
    But really Vancouver is very different from any places in Japan. The climate of Vancouver is affected by the warm tidal water and it is rather mild.
    I don't know the reason but the blooming date of Akebono differ too much in Vancouver. That's a wonder for me. I lived in Vancouver only 2 and half years. I experienced only 3 springs. I didn't experienced very early blooming year. But sometimes, Akebono blooms in February. I experienced the very cold winter of -15 degrees but I haven't experienced the warm winter like 2010. At the winter Olympic time, Akebonos were blooming!!
    I'd like to see the detail of the temperature in that winter and spring.
     
  11. Glen1985

    Glen1985 New Member

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    This link shows previous weather in Vancouver from as early as 1956 (from what I can see) Richmond, Canada Weather Calendar | Weather Underground. It captures March, although it does not show recordings during April for many of the years. Not sure why that is, but thought I'd share in case it helps.
     
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  12. eteinindia

    eteinindia Active Member VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    Thank you very much, Glen 1985. Now I can see the difference of 2010 and other years.
    But I don't see so big difference. I know not only in 2010 but a few other years Akebono bloomed in February. But I can't remember.
    And Also Richmond is not in Vancouver. It's the city next to city of Vancouver where the Airport locates.
     
  13. wcutler

    wcutler Esteemed Contributor Forums Moderator VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    Yes, but I think it's the data that's used in all our weather reports. On the radio weather reports, they give the airport temperature and the valley temperature. Or did you actually find Vancouver data? The West End temperature is very similar to the airport. If you were to find "Vancouver" data, it could be so different depending where it was taken.
     
  14. eteinindia

    eteinindia Active Member VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    Thank you, Wendy. I didn't know the weather report in Vancouver was checked at the air port!!
    Perhaps I was wrong with my memory. I must be mixed up with some other things.
    I thought they were checking the weather at or near Granville Island or at the city hall.
    Now I saw the map of Vancouver again. The air port is only about 10 kilometers from downtown.
    In Japan Meteorological Agency has AMeDAS system which checking weather detail every 17 kilometers so it is near enough. But they are checking more in Tokyo Metropolitan Area.
    We have a lot of natural disasters in Japan and people dry washings outside in their garden or at balcony. So we care weather more and there are a lot of certificated weather forecasters and nowadays weather scouts who voluntary reports weather change.
    But I hope to find the table of weather details not the calendar. I can't find them, too.
     
  15. wcutler

    wcutler Esteemed Contributor Forums Moderator VCBF Cherry Scout 10 Years

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    This is from the Government of Canada weather page for Vancouver.
    upload_2021-4-5_13-35-5.png

    But I see that Vancouver, Canada 10-Day Weather Forecast | Weather Underground (wunderground.com), the site that @Glen1985 used, does have several weather stations and offers a choice (in Farenheit - I don't see where to change that to Celsius).
    upload_2021-4-5_13-41-21.png

    That doesn't seem true today. The airport shows as coldest, but other Richmond locations (not shown in my screenprint here) are warmer. And Kitsilano is 10 F degrees warmer than the airport. I imagine that when it's warm, the airport might be warmer than the West End.
     

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