Curious- How do they KNOW when the last frost will be?

Discussion in 'HortForum' started by Erica, Mar 6, 2006.

  1. Erica

    Erica Active Member

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    I have always wondered how "they" know when the last frost will be? This year it is apparently March 22 (Cannor Nursery told me). How do they know that? Down to the date? Also, who decides? It must be different for every area. Just wondering.
    Thanks
    Erica
     
  2. oscar

    oscar Active Member

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    maybe you should ask them to wager some money on that :D

    I would have said its possible to predict within a couple of weeks, but to a date, i dont think so....................still on a weather note, my sister gave me a great book for christmas, Tips from the old gardeners......if you want to know when its safe to sow seed outside, sit bare bottomed on the ground (lol) if its comfortable then its time to sow seed. hehehehehe
     
  3. LPN

    LPN Well-Known Member 10 Years

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    There's nothing that will assure you that March 22 will be the last frost, only that it's an average based on past years. It's quite conceivable a frost could occur past that date.

    Cheers.
     
  4. Erica

    Erica Active Member

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    Ahhh, so my next question is... on seed packages why do they tell you to start indoors 3 weeks before the last frost? How are you supposed to know when that is if the frost date could be off by a few weeks?
    This gardening stuff is complicated!
    Erica
     
  5. bcgift52

    bcgift52 Active Member

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    It wouldn't matter if you're off by a few weeks.
     
  6. Michael F

    Michael F Paragon of Plants Forums Moderator 10 Years

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    They don't. They're pulling a fast one!
     
  7. Weekend Gardener

    Weekend Gardener Active Member 10 Years

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    If the weather forecasters with all the modern day technological aids at their finger tips can't get it right all the time, within a few days of the asking, what chance does anybody have of nailing down the last frost to an exact date? Now, if they say that the average date, or usual date for the last frost in your area is the last week in March, I would respect that. Nailing it down to an exact date seems a bit silly, to say the least.
     
  8. oscar

    oscar Active Member

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    Here its the 3rd week of May, however there has been snow in the UK in June, not in recent years but it has happened.....if the seed packet says 3 weeks before the last frost, then it means on an average year in your area...........and no its not complicated, its a very rewarding past time.......my first cucumber seeds germinated today.......what joy..i feel like a new daddy.
     
  9. chuckrkc

    chuckrkc Active Member

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    In Kansas, Extension agents explain that the last frost date is the date when statistically there is a 50-50 chance of getting another frost. There after, the chances of another frost diminish until fall. They say the Kansas City last frost date is April 6 or 15, depending on the source. I do get antsy by then and sneak a few things out, but I try to wait until later in the month, closer to May 1.
     
  10. Tommyr

    Tommyr Member

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    They DON'T know. It is an AVERAGE date. Take it with a grain of salt.

    Tom
     

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