Have we ever been this close to realizing our own extinction?

I was having an 'inspired' conversation with a friend of mine last night about all the problems facing our planet right now, and I was curious if the human race has ever felt this close to realizing our own extinction. Now I realize I am making a huge generalization, but I am pretty sure most people have heard at least once, for one reason or another, that our planet is in great turmoil, and how at no other time has it been this bad. So I am curious to know what other people think of this. If you agree, then what effect do you think this is having on us as a species? If you do not agree, then I welcome your positive thoughts.

All comments are welcome.

 

For most of our history there weren't as many of us and we didn't have modern medicine and technology. The ice ages that have come and gone many times have probably been a real picnic, yet we're still here.

 

We have been threatened by various religions over the ages that the end of the world is nye (sp). There is such a prediction coming up from Mayan sources in I think it is 2011.

From my more scientific outlook I don't think it is the end but things will cerainly change for many of us if we don't extract the digit. I still think grass roots movements can help in changing human outlook in how we use the resources.

Liz

 

Since the question was left open to interpretation I would like to ask "extinction from what"? Certainly there is open conflict in the world with the chance of the use of a major weapon on a society that opposes another religious point of view, but there is also the open question on global warming.

An interesting news story today out of Russia indicated one group of scientists differs with the now accepted idea the globe is warming. In fact, this group predicted the world is about to enter a cooling period which will last for about 50 years. It was their premise the world constantly goes through a natural heating and cooling cycle. Dr. William Gray who studies and predicts hurricanes has recently said he does not agree with the premise the globe is warming and indicates he believes the current climate change has more to do with changes in ocean salinity. His studies indicate there is little scientific data to support the idea there are now more oceanic storms than in the past. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/23/AR2006052301305_pf.html

The Russian group appeared to agree with at least portions of what Dr. Gray recently said.
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html

Some local weather forecasters were apparently recently threatened with the loss of the accreditation since they openly disagreed with the idea of global warming. One of our own local weather people was apparently among that group. This forecaster was regularly pointing out that our local weather was within norms. We have periods of extreme cold and then other periods of high heat. Periods of high rain and periods of low rain. Overall, the weather appears to be normal. But because this forecaster would not say openly the weather was warming they received some form of reprimand. Sorry, but facts are facts.

As for me? I'm no longer sure. I certainly see things that disturb me. I have friends who are recognized botanical scientists and they tell me of changes they observe in the rain forests in South and Central America. I've been a fan of doing what is best for nature for a long time. But there does now appear to be a lot of difference in scientific opinion on what is or is not happening to our earth and what is causing that to happen.

Certainly, polar caps appear to be reducing in size. But there is evidence this has happened in the past. And certainly, some things we can see appear to be changing. But what exactly is causing the change? There are many opinions from recognized scientists. In fact, Dr. Gray said his own research funding is now in jeopardy since he does not openly agree with some of the accepted premises being politically promoted. Politics certainly is involved.

Are we truly in more peril? The world has been in peril for a long time. I just seems to appear to be a matter of opinion what the current "peril" happens to be. And please, do not attempt to imply I am saying nature is not being affected. It certainly is. I'm just no longer certain man is the total cause of the change. If you read the scientific material there is room to understand the causes are certainly within the realm of natural cyclical activity.

Still, we should all do our part to make sure we are not a part of a potential problem.

 

I think human kind is speeding up what ever the natural cycles may be. Hence I guess I plea, that humankind that is into over use of resources, learns to do with a little less. Why must items be so over packed that a bin is full of recycled material in nought seconds flat. The kids had pizza this evening at least 4 boxes virtualy unused into waste. There has to be a better way. We have made a good start in our neck of the woods with the reusable shopping bags. I know this is just a miniscule thing but it is this level of grass roots I am speaking about. I wish we did no have to use brown coal as our electrical source. I can't stop it but I can try to use less of it by keeping my usage right down. How many lights do I need on when I am sitting upstairs on my computer? One should do the job right over the desk. not the stair well and down stairs and the back porch.....
liz

 

You say either and I say neither, Global warming or not we humans are having a huge impact on our enviroment. The total loss of the cod stocks off the east coast and warnings of the loss of wild salmon on the west coast and speices extinctions happening from habitat loss can not all be explained away. "Pave paradise and put up a parking lot" Joni Mitchell wrote that in the 1970. Well 37 years later we are paving paradise with high density housing with no room to plant a garden.The arguments go on and on and so do we, no dought we will survive but diminished.
As gardeners it seems in some small way that we try to recreate some small part of the earth on our own piece of ground, if we are lucky to have that or simply a few pots on a patio. The Chinese and the Japanese hid their gardens behind walls and other cultures too as a way to retreat from the world around themselves. This need for nature is inherent in all of us who garden, like a tonic to be taken in and the thought of the greater world around us disolving at a greater pace every year is frightening. Creating a garden around ourselves can isolate us from the outside realities and this sweeping change thats affecting the biodiversity of the planet. On the other hand this intimate relationship with our gardens can give us an appreciation of our dependance on the enviroment we inhabit.
Personaly I don't see any changes in the way we are raping this world. The never ending need to exploit every bit of resource we find and the token efforts made towards solutions are pitiful at best. Just stand by any freeway for everyone taking transit, walking or riding a bike there are tens of thousands riding cars everyday. Driving, consuming and throwing our trash in other communities back yards and these communities fighting over who get the cash for trash, totally bizzar. We are at a turning point one our generation will be remembered for our gift to the next generation to deal with because with all our advancements we are only deeper in ****. Our only hope is to come up with a totally new approach and that answer is out there blowing in the wind even if its a little stronger these days.

 

The current appalling rate of extinction is certainly apocalyptic. This is driven by industrial economics; as long as financial gain is seen as the top priority and the only means to improve welfare, the same patterns will persist. It doesn't help that most of the money generated by exploiting a resource ends up in the hands of a few. Even here we have public agencies underwriting profits of a small number of businesses that may not even be locally based. Everyone pays and loses the resource base so that some may rake in the money.

 

Oh yes the resource boom. Australia is helping that one big time. GREED is definatly one of the ingrediants of the problem. Change has to happen through the ballot box as well. If you pay peanuts you get monkeys and if you don't vote you get what you deserve. Apathy is a dangerous thing when one is relativly comfortable. It's things like the internet and discussions like this that make people see what is outside their comfortable door. We are no longer isolated in many places so we need to open our eyes and talk to each other.
Off the the box :)
Liz

 

As a species I suggest that we are (like cockroaches and rats) very adaptable and resilient, and very unlikely to become extinct. One can argue the degree to which we are responsible for the unarguable imbalance in our planet's climate, but it is becoming painfully clear that we are one of the pieces of this grand puzzle that are out of place.

There is no plausible reason to expect that our species will be exempt from the sequence that corrects every other chronic over consumption of a resource: the resource is depleted; the population of the over consuming organism crashes. The only variables are the mechanism of the crash and the time taken to balance the population to the remaining resource (or it's replacements).

The crash mechanisms include "depopulation" thru starvation, conflict over the remaining resources, attrition brought on by reduced birth rates and decreased infant survival, and increased mortality as a result stress.

Our nature as sentient beings leads to the coexistence of people and programs or activities that are (before the crash) beginning to moderate the problem while others carry on with programs and practices that excaberate it.

While the ballot box is very important, the current economic and political systems are so entrenched that often it seem the only place one can make any difference (however small) is in our own personal activities and decisions.

To bring this commentary back to our botanical nature: I have a diesel tractor; I also have two draft horses that I hope to learn to drive. I have two sprayers that haven't had nozzles mounted in 3 years. We have recently taken in partners into our farm/life venture; I expect this spring to be much more productive particularly in the vegetable garden. We hope to soon stock our nursery with plants that are specifically selected for their ability to survive without chemical intervention...

So what? I personally expect to be extinct sometime within the next 35 years. I expect that some of my boys will elect not to add to the population pressure on our planet, but I hope they will continue the healthy "low impact" life that we are trying to establish, as will their friends, neighbors and partners in this community.

Ralph Walton

 

Global warming has happened before naturally, and so has global cooling. Sometimes it has been slow and everything coped, sometimes it has been quite fast, with a degree Celsius in a thousand years or so; some living things can cope with this, others couldn't and went extinct.

Modern man-made global warming is a different thing again. By making a 30% increase in the natural carbon dioxide content and a 250% increase in the methane content of the atmosphere, man has caused the global temperature to rise by a degree Celsius in just the last 100 years. And the rate of increase is still getting faster.

Not many species will be able to cope with that rate of change, ten times faster than anything that's happened in at least the last 30 million years.

 

WOW, thank you for the overwhelming responses.

photopro - thank you for your links and very informative response. to answer your question, 'extinction from what?', i would have to say extinction from ourselves. most likely it will not be a war that destroys us, as there would have to be some of us controlling the weapons. and i do believe we as a species have experienced the fear of great losses due to weapons and technology. but have we, and i mean we in the 4 billion sense, ever made the comment, 'well if we make and effort now at least it will buy some time for our children to figure out a solution.' as if we already know it's going to happen, and it's just a matter of time.

does anyone think we have ever been in a similar situation?

Ralph Walton - i agree with you that as a species we are very resilient, and problem solving is one of our strongest attributes. but i also believe that we are quite lazy, for lack of a better word. as the analogy of the frog in boiling water demonstrates, i think humans will only ever react to something once we feel the burn. i just hope that burn is something we can recover from. bravo for your demonstration of what all of us should trying.

i know most of you are probably over loaded with reading material already, but if you get a chance, check out 'the weather makers' by tim flannery. although, not for the weak hearted i am afraid.

thanks again for all of your responses, i would love to hear more.

 

I too would love to read more responses. Please allow me to make one additional response.

I received a rather unhappy response privately (my email address is easily found on the internet) from an individual who believed I was saying by my added links global warming is a non-fact. I did not say that. I tried to point out that qualified scientists who are respected in their fields have differing opinions on what may be happening.

I am one of only a few people who have logged over 5000 scuba dives during my life. I've got a card to verify that fact and I am aware of less than 1000 people who have one of those cards. But during my nearly 40 years of diving around the world writing magazine articles I've seen coral reefs die. The reefs off Key Largo, FL are now only a fraction of the life form they were in the early 1970's. Compared to the enormous life form Molasses Reef once was, today it is little more than a pile of dead coral rubble. People are killing those reefs and despite the efforts of many to preserve them, they are still declining due to human impact. And it is not the scuba divers who are doing the major damage! It is the impact of human waste pumped into the porous soil (coral stone) of the Florida Keys that does the bulk of the damage. So, believe me, I understand people are doing damage to our environment. In 40 years, I've seen it happen! I've also seen the same thing at many places around the Caribbean and in other far off exotic locations. Many reefs in the southern and eastern Caribbean are now severely damaged due to human impact including major hotels built right on the ocean's edge. Our world is fragile.

But, are we the sole cause of all the changes happening on the globe? That question simply cannot be emphatically answered! Our earth changes, and has changed many times. She has experienced ice ages and periods when much of the known continents were more tropical. How fast does that happen? I have no idea. But I do now each of us can do more in order to do less harm to Mother Nature. But mass panic is not the answer. Self enlightenment and self action certainly is a part of that answer.

I no longer take a one sided approach to the problem of global warming. I read just about everything I can find, especially when it is written by a scientist that is an acknowledged expert in their field. There is a great deal of difference in opinion. And I do my best to include that information into my total belief on the larger problem. Too much qualified information is out there to say man is the sole cause of global warming. But we do certainly contribute.

Certainly, something is happening and I have decided to do as little harm to the earth as I possibly can do. I don't have access to a private jet, but if I did, I certainly would be not flying around emitting much more carbon than is necessary to get from place to place. If the size of my car is important, so is the way I travel. If it is important for each of us to conserve, then it is important that everyone be a a part of the solution. The potential solution falls upon all of us, not just a few of us.

And if the disbelievers turn out to be right, and global warming turns out to be a cycle of nature, then what harm have I done by doing as little personal damage as possible?

 

This is my first post, and what an impressive group of "posters" you are. It is so sad to hear that the reefs are visibly different in just 40 years. I cannot go plant coral, but I can plant heirloom varieties of plants, vegetables etc.

Possibly, we need to have more variety in our foods. It is with variety that we can help oursleves from extinction of disease. Corporate farmers producing one variety of corn and soy for mass produced, preservative laden, sugared foods may just be our own extinction in the making!

Whether or not man made global warming is a fact, I am happy to do my part in reducing my "carbon foot-print". Maybe some scare tactics aren't the worst thing in the world. And maybe if we reduce our carbon footprint as a nation, the need for weapons and war will be diminished. Then we can focus on bring peace to the peace-needing places in the world and avoid extinction by weapons. Yes, my idealist views are coming out, if only they could be real.

Now, I'm off to post about pruning my fuji apple tree, the reason I joined this group. I need assistance, as I have inheirited this tree with our new house purchase. What an abundant crop we had, don't want to screw it up!

These postings, were however, much more interesting! thank you.

 

I am an avid watcher of nature and weather and have been for a long time and just like Photopro I have seen drastic changes in my case probably 50 years. It seems to me the change has been even quicker in the last 20 odd years. I can remember remarking on odd flowering times and animal behaviour long before global warming or what ever it is was on my horizon. As I have said before the movement of leaving a smaller carbon footprint on this earth has to come from the grass roots and I agree some scare tactics might not go astray to get the ball rolling.

Liz

 

This indeed, is a most interesting thread.

What I find most perturbing is the number of born-again-environmental leaders appearing on the scene. They're nothing but convenient environmentalists and populist flavour of the day politicians.

And perhaps even more disturbing, is the amount of media spin on who and what is environmentally friendly. For those of you living in the Vancouver region, are probably quite familiar with the many "Green" products and "Green" buildings being hyped on the many residential condo marketing brochures.

Truthfully, it's all greenwash.

Although one may argue that the creation of a Green awareness may be a benefit arising from all of this spin, I feel like all fads, it will come and go. Just recall the "energy crisis" arising from the 70's - and all the compact and subcompact vehicles that were a result. Now we're back to big vehicles.

Smart cars and electric cars are interesting, but I highly doubt the World will adapt quick enough to make a dent on our environment.

Of late, there is talk of a Carbon tax here in BC. To be fair, I feel that the majority of us Green thumbers here on this UBC bot forum should receive a Tax credit... as many of us grow plants that absorb some of this carbon. Although it is miniscule, it still probably is more effective than many of the greenwash products that are being hawked out there.

I can go on and on... but most of this has been bantered about on the many blogs and forums already.

Carbon tax? How can you place accountability on this effort when current elected leaders can't even account for their current responsiblities? A tax and a credit may help - Don't just punish... you also have to reward.

And I'd prefer to take my green tax credit in the form of free backyard plants and seeds - so I don't have to shell out green backs to acquire more of what I love. And I love plants ...lots of plants in my garden.

 

I'm not extremely well read scientifically but I am saddened by the changes that are occurring in some areas. We in the foothills and prairies east of the rocks (Rocky mountains) have been suffering a lack of snow fall but our eastern neighbours in Canada have experienced record amounts of snow fall this year. We have also experienced flash floods one year and record high summer tempuratures and drought the next. Mostly I wonder what it's doing to the eco-system in the Arctic. I also believe that this may be a natural cyclical occurence but I still hope that we don't lose unique Arctic flora (which has a such a short season) due to these changes. Just my thoughts.

Les

 

there's too much time spent politicking about whether it's global warming or not, whether it's at this rate or that... there are whole corporations out there with the sole aim of discrediting the science, confusing the masses and being very well paid for it. But, the evidence clearly shows the effects of our industrial revolution quickly using up the earth... and we have only so much rainforest left to clean the air (I know it does much more than that), only so much fresh water frozen at the poles, flora/fauna disappear before we even knew they were there. People in China and India are changing their economies and lifestyles... why shouldn't they eat meat if they want to? And yet, the planet can't possibly sustain the demand we North Americans alone put on it for our gluttonous appetites, much less the addition of hugely populated developing countries wanting to catch up to us. You and I can decide to eat local, limit our meat consumption, drive less, walk more... etc. Set an example for others in that way and teaching our children... etc. In a perfect world we would have some real leadership that cared for the people and the planet, and not put the bottom line first everytime. A tax credit system (reward) as mentioned above makes ultimate sense to me, but you wouldn't want to hold you breath waiting for it. Grass roots is all we've got in Canada... I just wish we polite canucks would vote more with our dollars (ie don't shop at Walmart) and our voices (ie how do we let these politicians get away with things like Tilma?!) I also agree that Tim Flannery's The Weathermakers is a brilliant book and should be in the schools... there's so much out there to educate ourselves on the gazillion facets of what we're dealing with, and what our kids will be dealing with. How about the whole Monsanto thing? Percy Schmeiser came to this community and I cried hearing his story... we could go on and on..... sorry if I rant... I do believe that communication is the key. just like this forum. and to keep positive and aware. don't believe everything you read... research and make your own informed opinions. start dialogs. garden.

 

well i would be lying if i said i am not a little proud of this post i started. and i have been thoroughly engrossed in all of the comments.

photopro - i checked out zeitgeist, and i still haven't fully recovered from it. what a message. do you know of anything being organized for the 15th of march? i downloaded the info package and would love to get a viewing organized at the college.

if anyone hasn't seen this film yet i would highly recommend it, and i would be very interested in what you think.

bedixon - i agree we spend too much time talking and not enough time doing. and especially after seeing that film, i would say our best course of action is to take it on ourselves. make goals like photopro and do our best. i have little faith in the powers at large doing anything that doesn't make as much money as possible.

does anyone know how much oil is left? is it possible to think that a massive consumption would finally deplete the supply? the way i see it, the best thing that could happen to this planet would be to burn every last drop of it. not until then would action finally be taken. at the very least it would take away one more reason for war. i think we can all agree that even if an alternative was found, we are still going to consume it all. so if it happens over 50 years instead of 150 years, is our planet going to be that much worse off?

thanks for the opinions, keep them coming.

chris

 

Let me begin from the bottom: In the 1970's all the oil companies led us to believe the oil supply was finished! The conclussion was we just couldn't buy it for 35 cents a gallon any longer, it was going to cost more. So we paid 70 cents a gallon. We all stayed in long lines at the gas stations to buy a tank full of gas and that went on for many months.

The goal was not to have us conserve, the goal was to have us pay a higher price! So any estimate as to how much is left in the ground would be suspect, at best! But it has lasted 35 years longer than that dire warning and the price is still climbing! The goal still appears to have us pay more, not conserve. So 35 years later we're paying $3.00 a gallon. But do you remember what happened just 18 months ago? The price dropped by $1.00 per gallon because some began to talk about higher taxes on profits. Those who were making the most didn't like the idea of a "wind fall" tax, so the price droppsed. Interesting how things happen.

Today, oil futures traders stand to make billions if they can get the price to $150 a barrel. But is there a shortage? I just don't know! Will someone make a lot of money if the price per barrel goes way up? You bet! Supply and demand is often a term used by those who wish to profit, not those who wish to conserve for the better good of mankind. The true price of anything is based more on "what the market will bear" rather than the supply. Sure, demand plays a part. But are we using less now than we used in the 1970's? Don't think so! We're just paying more! Both the price and the demand are higher. Is there a solution, sure! Import less. But that also has a price to be paid. Those who sell the product care little about conservation, they care about the bottom line. Have you looked at the bottom line lately? And by the way, has anyone actually seen a drastic increase in price from OPEC? Some, sure. But does it equal the increase the speculators are hoping to attain? Someone always stands to make a profit.

Sorry, I know little about anything organized for March 15th. I try to read what I can from either side of the discussion, You may be surprised how much you can learn if you listen to those you consider your "enemies". Both sides now have an agenda. I'm not interested in agendas, I'm interested in facts. And this is one issue where honest scientists often reach opposing conclusions. And some scientists are now afraid to express their honest opinion based on their studies for fear they will loose their funding. Someone profits and someone looses.

As for starting any effort yourself, that is the only practical approach. Don't necessarily think only one point-of-view is right! Some would wish to scare you to death and that includes those who want to profit from the sale of oil, automobiles, and unproven alternative energy solutions. There is a solution out there, but regardless of what that might be, someone stands to get richer! And they will use every tactic in the book to make you believe only they are right.

Like every other mal situation that has faced mankind, this one will be solved. But so far, I'm just not certain all the facts are in place. Do your part!

 

Speaking of alternative energy solutions. What are peoples thoughts on the use of bio fuels. Today we are told our food is going to continue at the high price [Aust.}and it's not just because of the drought as we were originaly told. OH no, now it is all the land in the US and Europe and else where that is being turned over to biofuel instead of food production. Has a wiff of the oil price hike of the 70's me thinks.
Liz

 

Zeitgeist is well worth watching and available to everyone, they encourage the copying of this movie and passing it around. I made a disc but it ended up not working on everyone's DVD player... it might be worth ordering it from the site....anyway a few worthwhile books to read if you haven't already are: The Party's Over by Richard Heinberg, Confessions of an Economic Hitman by John Perkins, The Omnivore's Dilemma by Michael Pollen, Armed Madhouse by Greg Palast and Heat: How to Stop the Planet Burning by George Monbiot. Each of these are quite different but are connected in that they are concerned with the future of our world. On my list for reading next is the Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein and the End of America by Naomi Wolf... which is written for Americans, but, hey, we're all in this together. I agree that it serves us well to consider all angles, and not jump on one bandwagon. But, we can be sure what we see on the 6 oclock news is not going to keep us informed of what is really going on in the world. We need to seek out information. I haven't had cable for 3 years and don't miss it.

 

To the actual question, I believe the answer is 'YES', about 70k years ago the human population crashed to about 50K individuals, maybe less. The reason is unclear, there were probably a combination.
The point of the question, however, with a population of 6 billion today, we are probably in for a huge population crash again. Unfortunately we all do have to be part of the solution if it is to be avoided, and, as we have seen over the past eight years, there are some very powerful, shortsighted interests on this planet, in all countries. Unless we can convince those whose interests will be impacted in the short term that all of us will be impacted in the long term, we will have an enormous problem.
BTW, Liz, biofuels don't just take land out of food production, they do nothing to help reduce the carbon dioxide problem. When the fuel is burned, it produces nearly as much as do fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the problem, the source of the problem is irrelevant.

 

Biofuel is being jumped on as a "green" solution but what we need to do is cut WAY back on our consumption of everything. We are so used to having anything we want, right now, then throwing it away to get a better one (which was likely made from petroleum products). Our north american culture needs a complete makeover.
I wonder if those doomed civilizations like the Mayans and Easter Islanders talked like this, and tried to figure out how to save themselves... or did they just party on and rely on the gods to save them? Probably the 'powers that were' scammed and milked the minions to keep those good times coming for as long as they could get away with it.... and history keeps repeating.

 

I have only one question? If the world is so doomed what are YOU as an individual doing to fix the problem? Talk? Or action? I hear tons of talk. I see very little action. Everyone wants to blame the problem on companies like WalMart when in fact that particular corporation has a major plan to reduce their impact. I know, I'm a stockholder. And I knew Sam Walton personally. Chances are not buying from any company would have zero impact on the environment because you're going to buy the same products somewhere else. Everyone wants the big companies or the government to fix things for them. What are WE doing to fix it for ourselves? Or have we just accepted the current hype (either side) and given up? The "fixes" begin at home.

 

The fixes begin with organization. Corporations and government DO determine policy and ARE the causes of the problems. I didn't have anything as an individual to do with the World Bank funding road building in the Amazon basin.

To affect change participate in organized efforts. Commercial interests profiting from destructive and displacing resource exploitation have lawyers and lobbyists working for them all the time.